Three road qualifiers. Three losses. Three points from four matches.
That is the sorry state the Mexican national team finds itself in four games into its World Cup qualifying campaign. Saturday's 2-1 loss to El Salvador has Mexico in must-win mode mid-way through the Hexagonal Round of CONCACAF qualifying.
So how much trouble is Mexico in? We will find out on Wednesday, when 'El Tri' faces Trinidad & Tobago in Mexico City. Mexico. A win vs. T&T would help the Mexicans regain some balance and move back into a comfortable position in the standings. A tie or a loss and Mexico would head into the August 12th showdown vs. the U.S. national team in full panic mode.
Here is a quick rundown of the CONCACAF Hexagonal
1. COSTA RICA (12 points). Consecutive wins has 'Los Ticos' in first place, and in very good shape to qualify, but a trip to Honduras looms in August followed by a visit from Mexico (the last team to beat Costa Rica in San Jose) and a trip to surprising El Salvador.
2. USA (10 points). Beating Honduras on Saturday gives Americans some breathing room heading into visit to Azteca in August, but home date vs. El Salvador at Rio Tinto Stadium on Sept. 5th should be an interesting one.
3. EL SALVADOR (5 points). Surprise of the group, Salvadorans have benefited from playing three of first four qualifiers at home. Things are about to get much tougher with three straight qualifiers on the road, starting with visit to desperate Honduras on Wednesday night, followed by visits to Trinidad and Washington D.C.
4. HONDURAS (4 points). 'Catrachos' will regret the missed opportunity to get a point or three in Chicago, but four home games remain on Honduras' schedule. A win vs. El Salvador in Honduras on Wednesday would provide a major boost.
5. MEXICO (3 points). Three losses in four is terrible, but four home games remain on Mexico's schedule. 'El Tri' SHOULD beat Trinidad & Tobago at Azteca, but anything less would suddenly leave the Mexicans vulnerable heading into the USA match.
6. TRINIDAD & TOBAGO (2 points). Defense let T&T down against Costa Rica on Saturday and now the 'Soca Warriors' must find a way to win or tie at Azteca against a desperate Mexico team. Things don't look good for a team that actually boasts a good collection of attacking talent.
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What do you think of the current CONCACAF standings? Who do you see turning things around? Which team do you think is in serious trouble? Still not ready to write off Mexico?
Share your thoughts below.
I think the one thing we haven’t had too many people discuss is that the top end of CONCACAF is improving, especially at home.
You would never have seen these type of results in the last cycle.
Mexico will get results at home and will be fine. 4 of their last 6 WCQs are home games.
heres to hoping we land in South Africa’s group!!
Does anybody really still think that a CONCACAF team can get a top eight World Cup seed in 2010? That’s not happening folks. I addressed this in a recent Q&A. Long story short, there is a detailed and public formula for determining those seeds and neither USA or Mexico is cracking the Top Seven (South Africa will get one as host).
Ives, can you end this myth that winning concacaf gets us a seed, already?
For those paying attention: the seeds are determined by the previous three year’s FIFA rankings and performance in the past three world cups. Right now, those seeds belong to: Germany, Spain, Italy, Argentina, brazil, England, France. Ahead of us, but not seeded are Mexico and the Netherlands. The ONLY shot we have at a seed is if three of those teams fail to qualify and we basically win every match for the rest of the year. Anyone care to discuss the odds of that happening?
“They will win their home games and qualify. . . then go to the WC and post better results than the US.”
Really? While I agree that Mexico will likely qualify for the WC, this team has some serious problems, epitomized by the fact that they are forced to rely on a 36 year old, well past his best, for inspiration in attack. This team will scare no one in South Africa…
I don’t buy what some of you are saying, Mexico can win all the games at home they want and still be in trouble if they can’t get a single point on the road, something that the US and Costa Rica have already done and the US still has 3 more road games. The US is not in trouble they’re doing exactly what they have to, win at home, and take some points on the road. Essentially the US might hold Mexico’s fate when they meet up at the Azteca.
I agree with everyone who points out that Mexico has all those home games left. They’ve had 1 home game and are so tough to beat there.
At a quick glance at the standings, they look like they’re in trouble, but right now, they’re not. If they start dropping points at home, THEN they’re in trouble.
Actually, what people think of your confederation does matter. At some point, CONCACAF could lose a qualifying spot.
Posted by: TwistedTidings | June 08, 2009 at 12:57 PM
The only way CONCACAF loses a spot it based on the performance of its member teams in the World Cup Finals as a whole. It doesn’t have a damn thing to do with what they think of us. We have a play-off spot because of the recent performances of CONCACAF teams over the past three World Cups.
@ADG…your post is incorrect RE: Costa Rica They are 4-1 with one road loss (to Mexico 0-2) so they should be 0 not +2..
If you look at the qualifying strategy of needing to win at home and draw on the road, the current qualifying looks like this (+ or – based on expected points):
1. Costa Rica +1 (3 home wins, 1 road win, 1 road loss).
2. USA -1 (3 home wins, 1 road draw, 1 road loss
3. Honduras -2 (1 home win, 1 road draw, 2 road losses)
4. Mexico -3 (1 home win, 3 road losses)
5. El Salvador -5 (1 home win, 2 home draws, 1 road loss)
6. T&T -6 (1 home draw, 1 road draw, 1 home loss, 1 away loss)
So if you look at via expected points, Mexico is in better shape than it looks and El Salvador is in much worse shape.
Posted by: ADG | June 08, 2009 at 12:14 PM
When you have an advantage like Azteca it takes a lot to deem you out of it. They’re good for 15 points there. One win at T&T and you’ve got 18. More than enough to punch your ticket.
Mexico destroys T&T at home, then beats us. I don’t know what about this tournament makes it seem like any other result is possible. We have been horrific on the road, if no one has noticed.
The argument that we need Mexico qualify for the good of CONCACAF is confusing, if CR and Honduras outplay them (ES’ position in the rankings is completely a product of their schedule), that is good for CONCACAF. And I don’t think CR or Honduras will do any worse than we did in France or in Germany.
By far our best chance of getting a seed into the WC is to perform well at the Confed. Cup as it is heavily weighted in the rankings computations–in fact far heavier than fed. tournaments, for some reason.
Mexico will qualify. They have a bunch of home matches coming up and too much talent (for this region) to not qualify. Though I will be curious to see if desperation will make them a better team or not.
FYI 16 points was enough for automatic qualification for the 2006 world cup.
People can what they want about CONCACAF but Costa Rica has offered credible performances in the last two world cups, and Trinidad wasn’t a joke either.
A U.S. v Salvador match in RFK would be TERRIBLE for the U.S. as there are more “trucos” in the DC area than in San Salvador.
I heard fifa changed one of there rules….which makes us ABLE to cap Jermaine Jones…..why don’t we get on that?!?!?!
Adam in Irvine, I agree. I have HATED Blanco for years for a variety of reasons. Crybaby, whiner, bitch, played for los pichones de Club America, and woman beater… he goes to the Fire and actually PLAYS FOOTIE the way it is supposed to be played and he is a leader on that team. He earned my respect. Watching him after our win was nice. And the fake TRI lost which is even better.
I hope the US is the nail in their coffin in Azteca!!!!!!!!!!!!
Actually, what people think of your confederation does matter. At some point, CONCACAF could lose a qualifying spot. It can get harder to find quality opposition for friendlies. Big club teams may spend less money on scouting your region, meaning that some otherwise decent players may have a tougher road to big clubs and better competition.
But do I care as a personal matter? Does it make me love my team less? Hell no.
Personally, I hope Mexico ends up in 4th with a shot at the 5th best team in CONMEBOL. If their play improves, they could win that series, thus getting 4 Concacaf teams into the WC.
To me Mexico would have a better shot at beating a Urugray, Ecuador, or Venezuela then Honduras or El Salvardo.
G- that game is a Gold Cup game. I will be there supporting the U.S., unlike the other 59,999 Honduran supporters.
Two quick points:
1) You don’t need to average a win in your home games and a draw on the road to qualify. Not even close, in fact, as no team has ever failed to advance with 15 points or more. So winning by home is all that it is ultimately needed and, as such, Costa Rica and the US are well on their way to qualification.
2) Short of winning the Confederations Cup and the Gold Cup and every other game in the run in to the World Cup, the US has absolutely no shot at being a seeded team in the 2010 World Cup. The performance in the immediately preceding World Cup weighs heavily and we all know how we did there. 2006 was our shot and we ended up just a hair back of Mexico which is unfortunate because it was the difference between us advancing to the next round or failing as we did.
a historic time to be a fan of the USMNT!
Posted by: Andrew | June 08, 2009 at 11:57 AM
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Couldn’t agree more. And also, let me add it is a historic time to be a fan of a CONCACAF team. I feel the federation is as strong as ever. The only weak point being the teams can’t seem to muster a solid performance on the road, which I feel hurts them in the World Cup. Although, the road conditions in Central America are probably the worst in the world. Anyone agree or disagree?
“The game at RFK is against Honduras, and I don’t think it’s part of qualifying … just one of three friendlies played in July.
http://www.ussoccer.com/schedule/index.jsp.html“
That is part of the GOLD CUP. If you are living in DC area, buy your ticket now!! we need a lot of US Support for this game!
My good friend and colleague played futbol for Atlas in the Mexican League in the 80’s. He, two other of my good friends, and I are heading to Guadalaja on August 10 to tour the Atlas facility, spend time at a Chivas practice, eat some of Jorges’ comida de la familia, and go represent the REAL “el Tri” the RED, White, and BLUE at that toilet of a stadium Estadio Azteca.
A historic visit for a historic game as the US will win 2-1… on a late gol…
Mi esposa is scared to death as I get rather worked up (and she’s Mexican) so she knows what could happen when we win!
Correction. The July games are Gold Cup matches.
@patrick
you have a fair point but i still prefer being respected
@ai17
we will see
I can’t believe Costa Rica’s win this weekend was the first road win of the hex. With that in mind and Mexico’s four remaining home games, they should be fine.
The game at RFK is against Honduras, and I don’t think it’s part of qualifying … just one of three friendlies played in July.
http://www.ussoccer.com/schedule/index.jsp.html
Mexico is in a real bad situation. After Wednesday the best senario is that they are tied for third if Honduras and El Salvador tie. The worst case is they are in last, this is very remote but a chance, if they lose. Either way they are still a ways back from the top two teams, and real close to the team around them. So not sitting comfortable at this point.
With all that said if they can pull 9 points from their three home games in the second part then they could be doing well enough to get the 3rd spot and qualify.
the only concacaf team with any realistic chance of winning a single game at the world cup are US and Mexico. Teams like Honduras, Costa Rica, and El Salvador are terrible away from home and will not get a point in the world cup. That will make the concacaf look worse than what people already think.
Posted by: japan | June 08, 2009 at 12:29 PM
Really???
I beg to differ. Mexico is second from the bottom in this group for a reason. Other teams in it are truly better than they were in the past and are more than capable of winning a match in the World Cup Finals. This young Costa Rica team coached by Carlos Hermosillo is a great example.
@japan
as far as I know, what people think of your conferences means nothing. We earn our bids like everyone else. What people think of CONCACAF is irrelevant. We will get friendlies bc we’re the US and we will fight to qualify like every other country in the world. I don’t care what people think of CONCACAF, it has no effect on our team or our soccer playing abilities. I despise Mexico’s soccer team and want nothing more for them to miss the world cup and have their federation in shambles. perhaps you forget that in 06 Mexico essentially stole our safety spot from us which lead to us being put in an extremely difficult group. Abajo mexico, abajo.
They will win their home games and qualify. . . then go to the WC and post better results than the US.
I’m not worried about mexico. I’m more worried about the US. The 3 games they lost are all on the road, which means in the end when it matters most, they will have 3 home games in azteca. USA on the other hand have away games in honduras, mexico, and trinidad.
2 THINGS:
1) I signed up for the US Soccer Supporters Club. Got my scarf, wore it for the first 20 minutes of the Honduras game when we went down. Took it off and we started playing a lot better. I don’t believe in superstitions, I just believe that there is a voodoo hex created by magical powers that makes my scarf terrible luck.
2) Normally, I’m all up for hating Mexico’s national team, but I actually enjoyed watching Blanco play for El Tri.
@al17
the only concacaf team with any realistic chance of winning a single game at the world cup are US and Mexico. Teams like Honduras, Costa Rica, and El Salvador are terrible away from home and will not get a point in the world cup. That will make the concacaf look worse than what people already think.
It would be a dream come true to dash mexico’s hopes of a WC with a win at azteca, but we all know the history at that place and 3 points are extremely difficult to procure. Given the desperation of the fans, their federation and the atmosphere in Azteca I think this could be the craziest game we’ve played there to date. Make no mistake, the Mexican fans will be out for blood that day. Ours before the game, and possibly the federations after the game
you’ll probably only need 14pts. I hope mexico qualifies for the sake of concacaf
Posted by: japan | June 08, 2009 at 12:13 PM
Why?
Personally, I could care less whether or not they qualify however I’m not rooting against them nor for them. Only concern is that the USA qualifies.
Mexico not qualifying has no negative effect on CONCACAF. Hell, if anything it could be more positive since it would show that the other teams in the Confederation are much better.
Mexico has 4 games at Azteca left, they are nearly unstoppable at home. They will pick up the pieces and qualify.
I would like to see ES and Honduras tie this wednsday, that would give the US some decent breathing room before the inevitable Aztec romping we will receive.
Apparently I can’t add. Costa Rica is +2 as a result of their road win.
Yes folks, El Salvador vs. USA is at Rio Tinto on Sept. 5, not RFK.
Will any of the qualifiers Wed. be on TV here in the states?
US could essentially wrap up a WC berth with a win at Azteca. If I were Bradley, I would throw everything I have at the Mexicans in an effort to steal this game and make Mexico’s road to qualification as difficult as possible. The goal right now should be to get one of those seeded spots for the WC and avoid another “group of death” situation.
What’s clear here is that there’s a lot of football left to be played. I don’t think you can really rule anyone out…besides perhaps T&T. I think the Mexicans play well with a chip on their shoulder and that chip just keeps getting bigger and bigger. The Honduras v. El Salvador game on Wednesday will be pretty interesting.
If you look at the qualifying strategy of needing to win at home and draw on the road, the current qualifying looks like this (+ or – based on expected points):
1. Costa Rica +1 (3 home wins, 1 road win, 1 road draw).
2. USA -1 (3 home wins, 1 road draw, 1 road loss
3. Honduras -2 (1 home win, 1 road draw, 2 road losses)
4. Mexico -3 (1 home win, 3 road losses)
5. El Salvador -5 (1 home win, 2 home draws, 1 road loss)
6. T&T -6 (1 home draw, 1 road draw, 1 home loss, 1 away loss)
So if you look at via expected points, Mexico is in better shape than it looks and El Salvador is in much worse shape.
you’ll probably only need 14pts. I hope mexico qualifies for the sake of concacaf
I think as long as we win our remaining 2 home matches, that gives us 16 points and it should be enough to qualify.
How many points will we end up needing to qualify? It’s about the points after all.
Mexico is going to win in Mexico City.
There is an advantage when there is no oxygen for the opposing team. Mexico will end up qualifying, they are just making it hard on themselves.
I would expect the US to lose there too. The most we can hope is a tie, but I doubt we will win. Again, Oxygen is an important ingredient for playing Soccer.
a historic time to be a fan of the USMNT!
once mighty mexico, time is up, while the rest of the region improved there teams, mexico stayed stuck on tradition.