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SBI’s Mock World Cup Draw (Version 1.0)

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The 32-team field is set for the 2010 World Cup and for the next two weeks until the World Cup Draw on Dec. 4 you will see plenty of sample draws to give soccer fans around the world a sense of where teams just might wind up.

SBI isn't going to miss out on that fun. For the next two weeks, we will hold a handful of mock World Cup draws just to get American fans ready for the possibilities, and while the inclusion of surprise teams such as Slovenia and Algeria might make a potential USA draw a bit easier, there are plenty of scenarios that could land the Americans in a Group of Death.

Our First SBI Mock World Cup Draw produces not just one, but two full-fledged 'Group of Death' candidates, which means there are also two groups that can be best described as 'Groups of Life'. Unfortunately for the U.S. national team, it isn't lucky enough to draw one of those two relatively easy groups, though it's group is probably still a decent draw considering the possibilities.

We ran a random draw based on the following four pots, and while we won't know the details of how the actual pots will be made up yet, most estimates of how the pots will look are similar to these:

POT 1-Brazil, Spain, Argentina, France, England, Italy, Germany, South Africa

POT 2– Netherlands, Portugal, Denmark, Slovenia, Greece, Slovakia, Serbia, Switzerland

POT 3– USA, Mexico, Honduras, South Korea, North Korea, Japan, Australia, New Zealand

POT 4– Paraguay, Uruguay, Chile, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Cameroon, Nigeria, Algeria

So who did the Americans wind up with? In this Mock Draw, the USA will wind up facing a familiar foe as well as two teams the United States will like its chances against:

SBI Mock 2010 World Cup Draw

Group A– South Africa, Switzerland, North Korea, Paraguay

Group B– Italy, Serbia, Japan, Chile

Group C– Germany, Slovakia, New Zealand, Algeria

Group D– France, Portugal, Mexico, Ghana

Group E– Argentina, Netherlands, Honduras, Ivory Coast

Group FSpain, Greece, USA, Uruguay

Group G– Brazil, Slovenia, South Korea, Cameroon

Group H– England, Denmark, Australia, Nigeria

There you have it, a Confederations Cup rematch against Spain for the Americans, as well as a match-up against ultra-defensive Greece and an Uruguay squad that struggled to qualify, and did so by edging out Costa Rica in a playoff. Beating Spain again, or even gaining a point off the European champions, will be extremely tough, but Greece would be a good match-up for the Americans, while Uruguay would pose some attacking threats, but not as many as some other potential opponents such as Ivory Coast or Paraguay would have.

As for other groups, arguably the most hated group ever by Americans in a World Cup would be formed with France, Portugal, Mexico and Ghana squaring off in a real Group of Death (Okay, so maybe you don't hate Ghana, but the 2006 World Cup loss to Ghana is still fresh in the minds of many). Mexico has scored some relatively easy draws in the past few World Cups and the odds finally come around and land 'El Tri' in a loaded group. Then again, as bad as France looked in qualifying, and as much as Portugal struggled, Mexico could wind up winning this group.

Arguably the toughest of all Groups would be a group that is almost a replica of a 2006 World Cup group. Argentina, Netherlands and Ivory Coast were all grouped together in 2006, but now they add a Honduras squad that could cause some real problems to make up a truly brutal group. Throw in the fact that Ivory Coast is four years older and stronger than the 2006 version, and this group would be must-see TV.

As for the easiest groups? Paraguay would thank the stars if it could land a group consisting of South Africa, Switzerland and North Korea, while Germany wouldn't be too upset with a group including New Zealand and Algeria. Brazil could do much worse than its group, though a first-round date against Cameroon would be a can't-miss match.

Some other storylines? How about Giuseppe Rossi and Italy vs. Neven Subotic and Serbia in a battle of the USA turncoats? Australia vs. England would also be a heated affair. Switzerland vs. North Korea in a battle of political opposites?

What do you think of this draw? Like the U.S. team's chances to advance out of its group? Would you cry tears of joy of Mexico wound up in a group that tough? If you're an Irish-American, who do you root for in a France-Mexico match?

Share your thoughts below.

Comments

  1. Italy, as defending Champs, gets placed in group F. South Africa, as host, gets placed in Group A. FIFA has always kept the host and defending champ on opposite sides of the bracket so when the knockout stage begins, they won’t meet until the semi’s.

    The remaining seeds are: Brazil, Argentina, France, England, Germany and Spain.

    Slim chance CONCACAF gets grouped with Africa – In 2002, they were grouped together and FIFA rotated them for 2006 (CONCACAF and ASIA). Will FIFA rotate back?

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  2. I would probably swamp France and Netherlands in the pots. I know France won the WC in the past, but Clearly Netherlands should be rated much higher at this point.

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  3. Greetings all.

    On the previous WC2006. keeping european teams appart was done somewhat differently.

    It involved that one european team had to be put into a special pot and drawed first in one of the Groups. (in that case it turned out to be then Serbia&Montenegro, as the lowest ranking euro team). This meant that this team would guaranteedly face Argentina or Mexico as a top seed in that group. Turned out to be the Group of Death, C, with Holland and Ivory Coast joining Argentina and Serbia&Mont.

    This decision was also made at the last moment. Heidi Clum did the rest, maybe with the balls from the fridge (“pull out the colder, Heidi”) 🙂

    Anyway, If this was to be repeated in this WC, then Slovenia would be in that situation now.

    As for the Pot’s 2, 3, 4, they were made by an geografical criteria. All this surely was felt unfair.

    This was made to avoid following conditions:

    Maximum 2 Teams from the UEFA zone in a Group

    Maximum 1 Team from the (other) same FIFA zone’s in a Group.

    But if the Pots 2, 3 ,4 also like Pot 1, wouldn’t be consisted by an regional criteria, but achievments, (past 2 WC’s and FIFA Rankings) in that situation, I think those conditions could also be kept by a directed draw- (removing a team or more from the momentary draw of a particular Group when facing a possibility of breaking one of above rules)*

    As it seems, now the Host, South Africa, will be put into Pot 1. That is understandable, considering that is in the economical and public interest that the Host team go as far as possible. If you follow past World Cups, from the last 4 decades, and 10 World cups, the Host made it through the Group Stage. Even when the Tournament had started to play out in somewhat egzotic football places. This time, though, it would be hard to see S.Africa to go through, considering that through achievements they would be in the last Pot 4. So, they have been granted an even bigger chance then some previous Hosts.

    So, if the Pots 2, ,3 ,4 also like Pot 1, wouldn’t be consisted by an regional criteria, but achievments, (past 2 WC’s and FIFA Rankings) then the Pots would be look like this:

    POT 1

    S.Africa, Brazil, Germany, Italy, Spain, England, Argentina, France

    POT 2

    Portugal, Netherlands, Mexico, USA, Switzerland, Paraguay, Ghana, R.Korea

    POT 3.

    Cameroon, Japan, Australia, Greece, IvoryC, Serbia, Denmark, Nigeria

    POT 4.

    Uruguay, Chile, Honduras, Slovakia, Slovenia, Algeria, N.Zealand, Korea DPR

    Possible groups in a random (directed*) draw of these Pots:

    A

    S.Africa

    USA

    Serbia

    Slovakia

    B

    Argentina

    Mexico

    Danemark

    Slovenia

    C

    England

    Ghana

    Japan

    Uruguay

    D

    Germany

    Portugal

    Cameroon

    N.Zealand

    E

    Spain

    Paraguay

    Iv.Coast

    Honduras

    F

    Italy

    Switzerland

    Australia

    Algeria

    G

    Brasil

    R.Korea

    Greece

    Chile

    H

    France

    Holland

    Nigeria

    DPR Korea

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  4. haha if you want a political group – how about this… France, Serbia, USA, North Korea! (if we are grouped with african teams) or France, Serbia, USA, Algeria!

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  5. The draw is inherently unfair. The draws will ALWAYS be harder for the average team in the US’ pot than the average team in UEFA’s. The difference is far from marginal. I understand the desire to keep teams from like confederations playing each other in the first round, but I think fairness should come first. That’s just my opinion.

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  6. Ives, I was wondering when they started seeding the hosts automatically. I seem to recall the the seeded team in the US’s group in 94 was columbia, who had dominated south american qualifying, beaten brazil 5-0, and was generally considered one of the top five teams in the world going into the tournament. It must have been sometime between 94 and 02, because both korea and japan were seeded in pot A for that tournament.

    Like others here, I really hope they pair CONCACAF up with Africa, as that would both increase our chances of drawing south africa and allow us to avoid the likes of ivory coast, ghana, and cameroon, all of whom could make some major noise in this cup. i’d rather face any of the asian teams or non-seeded south americans instead of those three. we’ll see!

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  7. This might all ready be stated up there somewhere in the comment galaxy, but I’ll say it anyways.

    I don’t know if FIFA has rules in place for “potting” teams in the World Cup, but with their recent actions with the UEFA playoff round seeding, and lack of testies in the middle of the heated handball debate, I’d say they are going to just make it up as they go along.

    But for V 1.0, I LOVE our chances. I’ve heard that the second group will be the rest of the UEFA teams. I think we can all agree with that.

    Our draw could be even easier if we are grouped with the African teams. But, we could then get Paraguay and still a powerhouse from UEFA, like Netherlands.

    Our worst case scenario if we are potted with the Africans:

    USA, Brazil, Netherlands, Paraguay

    It all comes down to who we get out of the second pot. Aside from Netherlands, we can beat anybody in that pot.

    We have to pray for this:

    USA, South Africa, Greece, New Zealand

    I know this won’t happen, but let’s pray for it 🙂

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  8. I would love to play Spain in the first round. It would be great to beat them again and through their “We would win 9 out of 10” comments back in their face. I see that most people want the easiest path to the second round but I would love to play a top team along the way. I loved wathcing the USA beat Portugal 3-2 in 2002 and Spain 2-0 in the Confed Cup. The best vicories are the hard ones. 1st Choice Spain, Switzerland, Algeria. 2nd England, Portugal, Uraguay, 3rd SA, Netherlands, Nigeria. I would like to aviod a group of death with anyone but SA the Netherlands and us.

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  9. So if we get put in with the African teams we get a one in three shot at South Africa’s group. That sounds good but I can’t help but think Mexico would get in with S.A. They always seem to get a good draw.

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  10. Oh, I forgot that, just like the Champions League, South Africa, Brazil, and Argentina will be prevented from getting another team from their confederation in their group. The only confederation that can have 2 teams is UEFA. So when they do the draw, they will just not allow Uruguay, Chile, or Paraguay to be drawn against Argentina and Brazil, or South Africa to draw Algeria, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroon.

    Okay, that’s it. Everything that could be known for sure about the draw is there.

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  11. So based on that, the only sure things are that we’re going to have at least 1 European team and we won’t have Mexico or Honduras in our group.

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  12. Seeding is done as follows: The 32 teams are put in 4 pots of 8 teams, and each group gets one team from each pot. So you have 4 pots of 8 in order to make 8 groups of 4. With me so far?

    The 7 best teams and South Africa are seeded into Pot 1. This is determined by a formula that has not been released as of yet, but usually takes into account FIFA rankings over the last several years and at least the last 2 World Cup Finals performances. The bottom line however, is that Pot 1 will probably be all of the teams that won the World Cup before except Uruguay, which is not one of the powers in the modern game like they were 50+ years ago.

    7 teams have won the World Cup before (but we’re leaving out Uruguay), so you’ve got Brazil, Italy, Germany, Argentina, France, and England to make 6, Spain will probably be the other seed to make 7, and South Africa is guaranteed a seed to help ensure qualification to the next round for the host if at all possible.

    Then everything after that is about as even a geographic distribution as possible. That means no group can have more than 2 teams from Europe, so all the non-seeded European teams go into another pot, so every group has at least one team from Europe, but the groups with a European seeded team will obviously have 2 European teams. This is Pot 2.

    Pots 3 and 4 will be made up of geographic groupings as well. There are the 4 teams from Asia and New Zealand from Oceania, which makes up a block of 5, and there are the 5 African teams. These blocks will be in different pots no matter what. Then you have the 3 CONCACAF teams and the 3 CONMEBOL teams that aren’t Brazil and Argentina. So you have one set of 5 and one set of 3 in each pot.

    Sorry for the wall of text, but you asked how it all worked, and there it is.

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  13. I hear ya, Omar, we did well in the Confed, and we can beat anyone any given day if we are playing well. I think it’s ok as a USA fan to be confident, hopeful, but also realistic. We’re not there as a soccer nation yet, but as long as we’re progressing, I’m happy. It starts with consistency, and we are not that, although we consistently have qualified. I think the draw will go a long way (along with injuries and form) to determining whether we can realistically expect to get out of the group and beyond in June.

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  14. “improving” and “players playing great around the world” are pretty weak arguments for having 6 teams IMHO. African sides have seldom done well at the WC, though not significantly differently from AFC or CONCACAF sides…though neither AFC or CONCACAF have 6 spots.

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  15. I don’t really get the concept of a “mock draw”. I suppose there’s something to guessing the pots, but the rest is pulling names out of a hat. At least with mock drafts, you’re making educated guesses…

    Reply

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