Good afternoon all. I'm coming to you from lovely South Africa, where World Cup fever is in full swing as the country preps for the opening of the tournament on Friday.
The U.S. men's national team begins its tournament on Saturday against England, and the match has folks all over the country (and world) wondering just how the Americans will do in this tournament. Will they enjoy a dream tournament like in 2002, or will it be another disappointment like 2006?
I gave my take on Fox Soccer on the best-case scenario for the United States. It may sound crazy to consider, but so was a Confederations Cup final berth a year ago, and World Cup quarterfinal eight years ago. Fox Soccer colleague Jamie Trecker also chimes in with his take on why the Americans won't go far this World Cup.
I have been in South Africa for just about 24 hours so I am still getting settled in, but be sure to check into SBI and Fox Soccer for all my coverage of the 2010 World Cup.
For now, give the above story a read and tell us what you think would be the best and worst scenarios for the United States.
Share your thoughts below.
yes, clearly I do…
I don’t see why this point needs to be argued with a bunch of fanboys. What are you trynig to argue exactly? That US in not an “average” team? They shouldn’t be called average?
Spain, Brazil, Italy, France, England, Germany, Portugal, Argentina, Netherlands are miles ahead of this US team, even with their own problems. You disagree? If you do, it’s time to get your head checked…
So, if you are somewhat rational, you realize that calling US a top team wouldn’t quite make sense. And we’re clearly better than bottom-feeders like DPRK and New Zealand, right? Guess what the tier of teams in between is called? The one with US, Mexico, Uruguay, Chile, Paraguay, Slovenia, South Korea-AVERAGE….
That’s where we belong based on actual perfomance on the field and not in your head
Listen, Trecker probably is cool, and undoubtedly cares a lot about the game. But his points are so tired and they never evolve. You say we have red, white, and blue glasses on, I say he has Bradley hater glasses on (weak metaphor, but go with me). He wrecks Bradley all the time, and conveniently forgets when Bradley performs well. Over the past year, pretty much everything he has done has worked.
Your college football comparison is interesting, but not exactly accurate. There are 4 college national championships for every 1 world cup winner. Larger sample size. Plus the means for determining the champion is so different.
Listen, I know we aren’t going to win, but why can’t new teams at least contend?!
I’ve read the article a couple of days. It was on MSN.com frontpage, which was pretty cool; you’re moving up in the world, Ives!
what is trecker’s deal? He gives us no credit for beating Spain and Egypt last year. Spain is better than England. And also, I do not know what average he means. I agree that we might be average in the field of 32 teams this year, but average in a group of the top 32 teams in the word is not bad, that puts us in the 10-20 range of teams in the world! We CAN beat anyone except Brazil, and we SHOULD advance from our group!
if that happens, it would qualify as one of the top 5 events in world history.
I hope it happens.
best post of the day
Bradley crumpled this one up and angirly threw it in the trash on his way out of the hotel the other day:
Rossi-Davies
Donovan-Jones-Bradley-Dempsey
Boca-Onyewu-Subotic-Dolo
Friedel
brett – hahahahahahahahahhahahaha! the fact that you compared a World Cup Tournament to all those other sports says all we need to know.
So I did. And before anyone mentions it, yes, I noticed it’s spelled Trecker not Trekker. hahaha
Im with Brett in this one, i also believe USA will have a great WC, no matter what Jamie Dumb says I am willing and able to root for my team, no matter how bad it gets, go USA!!!
If we were to take a poll, how many people would bet that the English get all 9 points? I wouldn’t. 5, 6, 7? I could see them locking down SLV and giving a point to us and ALG at 1-1 or 0-0. There’s also a chance that ALG implodes, ENG SLV USA end up with 6 points. Let’s just play the matches already! GAME ON!
(For the record, I give the chances of progression: ENG-90%, US-50%, SLV-40%, ALG-20%).
Yeah you are right its always the same teams. We dont have super talented players or a breakout way of playing, but neither does Eng. Rooney is the exception, but he cant do it all himself. I say we should defeat the teams like those in our group. We should at least show we can compete with the big football powers by atleast competing with them.
Best case scenario has to be winning the title. Do I realistically believe we are the best team in the world? Absolutely not, but then again, I don’t think Italy was the best team in the world in 2006. I don’t think Duke was the best team in college basketball this past year. I don’t think the NY Giants were the best team in the NFL a couple years ago. I don’t think the US was a better team than Spain last year. The point is that in a “one-and-done” setting anything can happen. Therefore, the goal has to be to get out of the group. Once you do that, play hard, dare to dream, and reach for the stars; anything can happen…
Petaluman was Godwinned in six minutes. Impressive.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin%27s_law
And dont forget the vuvuzela factor. The secret friggin weapon of the SA team. You cant make this stuff up!
whoa…you just blew my mind.
I don’t mind disagreement, but he uses so many generalizations. He needs to work on some fundamental elements of writing an argumentative essay, such as the use of specific evidence. Perhaps his local university’s freshman composition course would do the trick.
i’d prefer a draw to england, a draw to slovenia and a win to Algeria, but it can go very wrong very quickly as we all saw in germany
Lucky!
Is it too late to sign Santiago Munez and film this so we can call it “Goal 4”
If we beat England, then 1st place out of the group is possible. That could set up a potential rematch with Australia if Australia come in 2nd in their group. I like our chances then. The next match would be against Mexico. Again, I like the chances. (And how sweet would it be to knock MEX out in the quarterfinals). After that, rematches with Spain and Brazil are possible. Although on paper, this is all a stretch, anything can happen in the World Cup.
funny if i were in a restaurant and left a lineup card behind it would read like this:
—Drogba Messi—
—–Fabregas—–
–Xavi daSilva Iniesta–
–Alves Maicon Puyol Ramos-
——-Howard———
subs: huey duey and luey
DON’T EVER TELL ME THE ODDS!
/Han Solo
Yes, we can. The ball just needs to roll our way a couple times. 😀
We have a very good chance at making it the the quarters. In fact, the semis really wouldn’t be that unreasonable if you look at the path the US would need to take. All the teams in Groups A-D are beatable by USA. That’s why anything less than a quarter-final berth will be disappointing.
It’s so hard to predict how our team will play because we can look so good one game and then absolutely horrible in the next. Sometimes this occurs in the same game with almost the same exact players (confed cup final). I felt like I was watching two different teams that match. Yea I know Brazil was realllly pressing and we folded under pressure, but even accounting for that it was a drastic difference. Would love for us to string together a couple of good matches in group play, advance, and find some momentum cuz I think if healthy and playing well we can beat anyone.
I think a reasonable and successful WC means getting out of the first round. That would put the US in the top 16 teams and that is about where we are realistically. I think the US will need 4 points to get to the knockout stage and will get them by losing to England, drawing with Slovenia, and beating Algeria.
I’m hoping Honduras and Mexico have a good showing as well. It could only help the world’s view of CONCACAF and the U.S.
Cool stuff!
Im intersted in how realist thinks WC qualifications are decided. by his comment, whomever is in the top 32 qualify
trecker is actually a pretty cool guy, but when it comes to his writing, hes a bit of a pessimistic realist. if you look at the big picture and take off your red, white, and blue glasses, his analysis is pretty spot on. intl soccer is like college football…championships are dominated by the same few teams (oklahoma, usc, ohio st, etc…germany, brazil, argy, etc) and to predict an outsider to do real well is largely foolish.
yes, Trecker is always a bit down on all things US, but in many ways he’s a realist as well. I think he’s an important voice because he’s as tough on the yanks as any of the british media are on [insert club here]. Welcome to the real world.
Now, don’t get me started on Martin Rogers over at Yahoo who must be incubating a lovechild with Jonathan Bornstein at some secret bunker…
Anyhoo, IMHO I like our chances to beat Germany more than I do Serbia.
In my dreamland the “right” USA shows up, and there will be no fantasy involved. they’ll go 2-0-1 to finish second. They’ll eek one out against Serbia (terrifing us all the way) to meet surprise upstart Nigera (who won their group, leaving Argentina to fall to an inspired mexico on the other side of the bracket). After winning that match in anticlimactic fashion they’ll take Spain to penalties in the semis.
Once they win that match they’ll ride the wave to face the Dutch, who caught Brazil on their only flat day of the tournament and dispatched England in a blowout, leaving them distracted and cocky. The US jumps out early and takes a 2-0 lead into the half, Holland roars back to tie it up but USA hangs on for penalties, where the pressure of expectation and the wall that is Tim Howard shut the Dutch out, thereby solidifying Howard’s standing as THE GREATEST GOALKEEPER ON THE PLANET.
Seriously, if this happens someone better buy me a beer.
Have a great time Ives, I’m glad your eyes and pen will be there to give us the fair take on everything.
Way to go Jamie Trecker Jr.
I am assuming by saying we are “not in the same form they were last summer plane and simple,” you are strictly talking about the matches against Egypt, Spain, and Brazil, but i would argue that we are in better form now than we were when we started the Confed Cup.
Our three matches prior to the Confed Cup were:
January 24, 2009 US 3 – 2 Sweden (#37)
June 3, 2009 Costa Rica 3 – 1 US (#40)
June 6, 2009 US 2 – 1 Honduras (#38)
That doesn’t strike me as great form. When you add the 3-1 loss to Italy and the 3-0 loss to Brazil it really doesn’t strike me as great form.
In the three games preceding the world cup we have played:
May 25 United States 2 – 4 Czech Rep. (#33)
May 29 United States 2 – 1 Turkey (#29)
June 5 United States 3 – 1 Australia (#20)
We are arguably playing better teams and having better results than last year’s tournament. I am not going to tell you we are gonna win the world cup, but i think your pessimism is a little misguided. Cheer up! Go have a beer. We are gonna find a way out of the group. Then who knows…
Jamie Trecker, go lump it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I get into SA on tuesday afternoon, all the ives faithful that are in joburg should find a good bar and meet up. How does that sounds to those of you that are going to be there? Hopefully you can make it out Ives.
Wow and I thought Muir Woods was such a peaceful place. Comparing Trekker to Nazi propaganda seems like a major stretch.
I don’t love the guy, but sheesh by definition of how the article was set up he’s supposed to be negative. Yes, I know he’s a perfect fit for the job, I know but wow. It’s not like everything he spits out is total garbage. I think Ives would agree with that.
I’m telling you guys…wierd things happen in football when its not played in Europe. Don’t believe me? Take a look at history…
Japan/Korea ’02: US makes quarters, south korea makes semis!!!!!, Senegal makes the quarters. France and Argentina fall in the group stage.
USA ’94: US beats Colombia who doesnt even make it out of the group. Romania and Bulgaria make the semis.
There is going to be some serious African voodoo going on. SA will show well, one African nation will make a serious run, and some traditional powers will fall early.
I’ve never heard of Trecker before, but my head tells me his outlook is more realistic than Ives. That said, I completely agree with how disrespectful the quote above is. Also, I believe the stats (wins,losses,1st in concacaf, 2nd confed cup) are in Bradley’s favor over every other coach we’ve had. Stats arent everything, but they are the only objective evidence. And I tend to agree that we have lately been an overachiever relative to our talent and depth. Ready for saturday!
Your analysis assumes that teams 1-32 are in the world cup. We all know this is not true. See North Korea, New Zealand, South Africa, Slovenia, Algeria, etc etc.
Trecker’s points are pretty tired.
“he’s a pat you on the back do ur best type of coach he’s not a tactician . proven by his reluctance to sit Ricardo Clarke when he add zero to the team IMO.”
Care to define what exactly a tactician does?
Your opinion that Clark adds zero to the team would argue that Bradley is good at getting stuff out of modest players.
I assume you are not a top flight tactician, in which case how can you tell one when you see one? Trekker certainly is not a top flight tactician.
Bradley knows a lot about tactics but the US is mostly talent deficient. So a good US coach needs to get these guys playing together at maximum efficiency as much as possible as opposed to trying to get them to play osme sophisticated system desinged to mask their deficiences. Bradley has only so much time with these guys, so simple is probably best.
Bradley supposedly left this line-up card behind in a restaurant in Jo-burg:
Buddle-Findley
Donovan-Bradley-Clark-Dempsey
Boca-Onyewu-Goodson-Dolo
Howard
subs: Gomez, Altidore, Torres, Holden, Beasley, Bornstein, Edu
Ives–
It’s hard to take your colleague Jamie Trekker seriously, when he doesn’t even agree with his own opinions.
In his team round-ups, he lists South Africa as the best odds to get out of group A (50 percent), with Uruguay as the worst (15 percent). But in his other article, he has Uruguay going on, and South Africa failing.
Also, in group G, he has Ivory Coast as 50 percent to go on, and Portugal as only 35 percent, but elsewhere he has Portugal going on.
Overall, this is just sloppy journalism.
While your opinions may be hopeful, at least they are well-reasoned and consistent across the board.
Ives 1, Trekker 0.
NICE BRETT!!
BELIEVE! I honestly believe that we have a chance to go far.
That’s exactly what we are – a good team. And we have players who are hungry. No one seems to see us as a team on the way up. We are being judged on the past, not the present.
I am getting a bit tired of seeing all the usual suspects being projected winners. This cup will have some surprises, and we have a great chance to be one of them.
Thank you!
My Vojvodina could beat the USMNT!
Ives and Trecker represent the zenith and the nadir of the possibilities for the US team. Frankly, neither journalist can be sure of anything because so much of what matters for the US and its opponents is unknown right now. Trekker’s final pronouncement was that it was unlikely the US would win the Cup. Really? Frankly, that is true for anyone except Brazil and Spain.
For Americans, think of the World Cup as the playoffs. And what that means is anything can happen.
Going by their historical form England, who are usually gutless chokers, should be crap in this tournament. But their recent form and their coach would seem to favor another outcome for them. If the US gets a result against them I can see the wheels falling off their cart. I can see the USA going 3-0, losing 3-0, 2-0, and 1-0. I can also see them, winning all three of their games.
Ives and Trekker are not god and the devil. They are informed, not omniscient. I haven’t checked but I’m reasonably sure they both put on their pants (does Trekker wear pants?)one leg at a time.
My advice to everyone is to enjoy this time before the first game when hope springs eternal and anything is possible. It is what a large part of what sport is all about. Unless it’s fixed in which case we need to all talk to Jack Warner.
HA HA HA!!!!!!!!
Brazil, Argentina, Spain, Germany, Netherlands, England
next tier would be Portugal, France, Serbia, Ivory Coast
lay out for me the odds for beating four of these in a row….
except that there aren’t 5 USSR-like teams in the World Cup (England, USSR-like?)