There are still two weeks to go in the Major League Soccer season, but the race for playoff spots is all but over.
The Kansas City Wizards could still conceivably qualify for the playoffs if they win their remaining three games and Colorado loses its final two matches, but barring that scenario we are left with trying to figure out how the eight playoff teams will fall into place.
No playoff seeding position is guaranteed among any of the eight playoff slots, meaning we still don't really know who will be facing each other. As it stands, here are the four first-round match-ups if the season ended today:
EAST
1. New York Red Bulls vs. Colorado Rapids
2. Columbus Crew vs. San Jose Earthquakes
WEST
1. Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Seattle Sounders
2. Real Salt Lake vs. FC Dallas
How will the actuall playoff match-ups shake out? Here is a look at some of the scenarios:
EASTERN CONFERENCE
New York has a two-point lead on struggling Columbus with two matches against beatable opponents remaining (Philadelphia, New England). Barring a collapse, New York will hold onto the top spot and face either Colorado, San Jose or Seattle. The Red Bulls have beaten the Rapids and Earthquakes in the past month at Red Bull Arena and, like most teams, would probably like to avoid facing Seattle in the first round.
Columbus is not playing well, but the remaining schedule is very favorable. Winless in five league matches, the Crew has a perfect slump-buster against DOA Toronto FC, and a home finale against a Philadelphia team that has been bad on the road all year. Columbus will still need New York to falter though, and a likely match-up against San Jose or Seattle looms. The Crew won't want any part of the Sounders and former head coach Sigi Schmid, who have been Columbus twice in the past month.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
The Los Angeles Galaxy basically have the top spot locked up, with a four-point lead and two matches remaining, but it can't take the No. 1 spot for granted just yet. A home game against a tough Colorado is followed by a regular-season finale against an FC Dallas side that hasn't lost since June (when it lost to the Galaxy). If LA holds its spot as expected, the first-round match-up will be against Seattle or San Jose. The Galaxy won both match-ups against Seattle this year (by a combined 7-1 aggregate), but finished winless against the Earthquakes (1-0-1).
Real Salt Lake and FC Dallas appear destined to face each other barring a late collapse by FC Dallas. These teams meet this weekend at Rio Tinto, meaning RSL could lock up the No. 2 seed in the West with a victory.
San Jose and Seattle both close out their remaining matches against teams out of the playoffs (unless you count the Earthquakes season finale against a barely-breathing Kansas City). This race could be vital because as it stands, the Red Bulls are playing much better than Columbus so it's a safe bet both teams would rather face the Crew right now.
As for Colorado, two brutal matches against Los Angeles and Real Salt Lake leave the possibility alive for a late-season collapse (especially given the Wizards' next two matches are against non-playoff teams Chicago and New England). If the Rapids hold on, their reward will be facing a strong New York team that just beat the Rapids last month.
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What do you think of the playoff scenarios? What potential first-round match-up are you most looking forward to? Think Kansas City could still pull off a miracle? Can't wait for the Real Salt Lake-FC Dallas series if it happens?
Share your thoughts below.
I just don’t want to have fly back east.
What a load of sh*t! Switch to a single table already. Galaxy should get play the worst team.
Thanks for the clarification.
I don’t agree that there is something inherently wrong with the salary cap. I think that there’s something inherently wrong with NOT having a salary cap. Teams that want to excel should find better ways to do it than simply outspending everyone. There’s nothing special about a purchased championship. And I would hate to be a fan of a small market team and have 0 chance of competing for a championship. When you don’t have prestigious international competitions and promotion/relegation to fight for, concentrating all the talent in the league to a few teams at the top would be suicide for the league.
Just to be clear, I’d never want parity in MLS to approach anything like the NFL, which has become a joke of a league IMO. I support finding a balanced level of parity where a smart and successful franchise can build a dynasty, but where bottom feeders aren’t consigned to that fate forever.
Again, I do completely agree with you that the salary cap needs to be raised, and I think your vision of a league where every starter gets paid at least 80k, if not 100k, is laudably reasonable. Too many people get caught up in fanciful proposals of salary cap doubling or tripling.
Losing valued players isn’t the worst thing in the world. It happens in every league outside of England, Spain, and Italy.
Let me clarify my position.
First off, yes, there is something inherently wrong with the salary cap. It strives to keep things close to even so teams that want to excel are held back. It’s like soccer moms complaining to coaches that their daughter doesn’t get enough playing time.
Second, I reluctantly accept that we need to keep the cap in order to keep the league alive (for now), but it needs to be expanded. It is BS that a team like San Jose draw 10,000 fans, while we draw 36,000, and they get the video game version of computer assistance so they can compete. But we gotta play someone right? Otherwise there’s no league.
It is inevitable that we will lose valued players for the sake of parity, and that is beyond disappointing.