A closer look at the final week’s Supporters Shield and playoffs scenarios

Photo by ISIPhotos.com

By DAN KARELL

As we head into the final week of the 2013 Major League Soccer season, there are still four places in the playoffs and a Supporters Shield title up for grabs.

The Eastern Conference has the tightest playoff race with the Montreal Impact, Chicago Fire, New England Revolution, Houston Dynamo, and Philadelphia Union still fighting for a chance to make the post season. Interestingly enough, four of the five teams from third place to seventh place play on the road, making their challenges that much difficult. Only the Union play at home, though they will need to win and have other results go in their favor to extend their season into November.

For the first time in the league’s 18-year history, the Supporters Shield title could be heading to Red Bull Arena as the New York Red Bulls need just a win to clinch their first piece of major silverware. Sporting Kansas City, the Portland Timbers, and Real Salt Lake are all snapping at the Red Bulls heels if they falter in their season finale.

Here’s a closer look at MLS Week 36’s Supporters Shield and playoffs scenarios:

SUPPORTERS SHIELD SCENARIOS

NEW YORK RED BULLS

The New York Red Bulls can win the Supporters Shield in one of three ways:

• a win vs. Chicago Fire on Sunday.
• a tie vs. Chicago Fire AND a Sporting Kansas City loss/tie vs. Philadelphia Union on Saturday.
• a loss vs. Chicago Fire AND Sporting KC loss vs. Union AND Portland Timbers loss/tie vs. Chivas USA on Saturday AND Real Salt Lake loss/tie vs. Chivas USA on Wednesday.

SPORTING KANSAS CITY

Sporting Kansas City can win the Supporters Shield with:

• a win vs. Philadelphia Union on Saturday AND a New York Red Bulls loss/tie vs. Chicago Fire on Sunday.

PORTLAND TIMBERS

The Portland Timbers can win the Supporters Shield with:

• a win vs. Chivas USA on Saturday AND a Sporting Kansas City loss/tie vs. Philadelphia Union on Saturday AND a New York Red Bulls loss vs. Chicago Fire on Sunday.

REAL SALT LAKE

Real Salt Lake can win the Supporters Shield with:

• a win vs. Chivas USA on Wednesday AND a Sporting Kansas City tie/loss vs. Philadelphia Union with Sporting KC not scoring eight goals more than RSL AND a New York Red Bulls loss vs. Chicago Fire with Red Bulls not scoring three more goals than RSL AND a Portland Timbers tie/loss vs. Chivas USA.

PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

The New York Red Bulls, Sporting Kansas City, Real Salt Lake, Portland Timbers, Los Angeles Galaxy, and Seattle Sounders have all qualified for the post-season, while D.C. United, Chivas USA, Toronto FC, FC Dallas, Columbus Crew, and the Vancouver Whitecaps have all been eliminated.

Here’s the scenarios for the remaining seven teams:

MONTREAL IMPACT

The Montreal Impact can make the playoffs with:

• a win vs. Toronto FC on Saturday.
• a New England Revolution tie/loss vs. Columbus Crew on Sunday.
• a Houston Dynamo tie/loss vs. D.C. United on Sunday.
• an Impact tie vs. Toronto FC AND a Chicago Fire loss vs. New York Red Bulls OR a Chicago Fire tie vs. New York Red Bulls with the Fire scoring five less goals than the Impact.
• an Impact loss vs. Toronto FC AND Chicago Fire score five goals less than the Impact in a loss vs. New York Red Bulls.

CHICAGO FIRE

The Chicago Fire can make the playoffs with:

• a win vs. New York Red Bulls on Sunday.
• a New England Revolution tie/loss vs. Columbus Crew on Sunday.
• a Houston Dynamo tie/loss vs. D.C. United on Sunday.
• a Fire tie vs. New York Red Bulls and either a Montreal Impact loss vs. Toronto FC on Saturday or the Fire score five more goals than the Impact if they tie Toronto FC.
• a Fire loss vs. New York Red Bulls but they score five more goals than the Impact if Impact lose to Toronto FC.

NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION

The New England Revolution can make the playoffs with:

• a win vs. Columbus Crew on Sunday AND a Montreal Impact tie/loss vs. Toronto FC OR a Chicago Fire tie/loss vs. New York Red Bulls OR a Houston Dynamo tie/loss vs. D.C. United OR Houston Dynamo score less than eight goals in win vs. D.C. United
• a tie vs. Columbus Crew on Sunday AND a Houston Dynamo loss vs. D.C. United OR the Dynamo score less than ten goals in tie vs. D.C. United OR a Philadelphia Union loss vs. Sporting Kansas City OR the Union score less than eight goals than the Revolution in win vs. Sporting Kansas City
• a loss vs. Columbus Crew on Sunday AND a Houston Dynamo loss vs. D.C. United and they score ten less goals than the Revolution AND a Philadelphia Union tie/loss vs. Sporting Kansas City.

HOUSTON DYNAMO

The Houston Dynamo can make the playoffs with:

• a win vs. D.C. United on Sunday AND a Montreal Impact tie/loss vs. Toronto FC OR a Chicago Fire tie/loss vs. New York Red Bulls OR a New England Revolution tie/loss vs. Columbus Crew OR the Dynamo score ten more goals than the Revolution.
• a tie vs. D.C. United on Sunday AND a New England Revolution loss vs. Columbus Crew or Dynamo score ten more goals than the Revolution if they tie vs. Crew AND a Philadelphia Union tie/loss vs. Sporting Kansas City or Dynamo score two more goals than the Union if Union win vs. Sporting Kansas City.
• a loss vs. D.C. United on Sunday AND the Dynamo score ten more goals than the Revolution in a Revolution loss vs. Columbus Crew AND a Philadelphia Union tie/loss vs. Sporting Kansas City.

PHILADELPHIA UNION

The Philadelphia Union can make the playoffs with:

• a win vs. Sporting Kansas City on Saturday AND a New England Revolution loss vs. Columbus Crew AND a Houston Dynamo loss vs. D.C. United.

COLORADO RAPIDS

The Colorado Rapids can make the playoffs with:

• a win/tie vs. Vancouver Whitecaps on Sunday.
• a San Jose Earthquakes tie/loss vs. FC Dallas on Saturday.
• a loss vs. Vancouver Whitecaps on Sunday AND Earthquakes do not score 13 more goals than the Rapids in win vs. FC Dallas.

SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES

The San Jose Earthquakes can make the playoffs with:

• a win vs. FC Dallas on Saturday AND a Colorado Rapids loss vs. Vancouver Whitecaps AND the Earthquakes score 13 more goals than the Rapids.

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What do you think of these scenarios? Which do you see most likely to play out? Who do you see making the playoffs in the Eastern Conference? Do you see the Red Bulls lifting the Supporters Shield?

Share your thoughts below.