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New MLS playoff format comes too soon, dilutes regular season

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MLS was bound to get a new playoff format at some point.

The league is expanding and within a few years there would eventually be a time when the now-old playoff format would feel too small for the size of the league.

But, introducing a new format for the 2019 season is too soon and it dilutes the competition before more teams come into the league.

With MLS in expansion mode, the playoff format that saw the top six sides make it to the postseason was going to be outdated before too long.

Altering the way the playoffs work has been on MLS’s radar, with commissioner Don Garber saying as much on the eve of MLS Cup during his annual State of the League address.

There’s been lots of talk about changing the playoff format. We’ve been looking hard at it, we’re going to be talking to our board about it next week and my guess is that we’re probably going to end up with something that’s a little bit different than what we have now,” Garber said.

“The idea here is to continually work on making the regular season more and more important so that winning in March is as important in winning in September or October. And our playoff format the one that we’re evaluating, and I think it’s really going to place a really, really high emphasis, strong emphasis on our regular season.”

As Garber said, the main goal of changing the playoffs is to increase emphasis on the regular season.

On one hand, the new format does this by making home -ield advantage mean so much with the single-elimination format and the first-round bye granted to the top seed.

On the other hand, it dilutes the competition by inviting so many teams to the party.

A whopping 58% of teams will make it to the postseason until the league expands again. That’s the highest percentage of any of the major sports.

The NBA sends 53% of its teams to the playoffs, the NHL 51% (soon to be an even 50% when the league adds its Seattle franchise), the NFL 37.5%, and MLB only a third.

Even when Miami and Nashville come along to swell MLS to 26 teams, the percentage is still slightly higher than the NBA. It won’t be until Austin and an unknown 28th team come along that only half the teams make it, but that likely won’t happen until at least 2022.

With that in mind, why did MLS rush to make the change? They could have kept the current format, which was working just fine.

Sure, the FIFA international breaks got in the way and the entire thing felt a bit dragged out, but the competition was exciting and brought in plenty of cash.

They could have banked on this format for another couple of seasons before introducing an expanded field and a single elimination format.

MLS would have been perfectly fine waiting until team No. 28 began play to alter the format. At that point, adding a seventh team to the playoffs would mean half the sides make it, the same as it wouldn’t have been if no changes came for 2019. That’s not egregious and still in line with the other American sports.

None of this means the new format is completely awful. There are plenty of positives to come out of it that will be plenty enjoyable. The single-elimination format is exciting and will create a March Madness-like feel.

The playoffs will be shorter and over before the middle of November. FIFA’s October and November international breaks won’t get in the way and the whole thing will wrap up before the harsh weather sets in.

But those changes would still be great in a couple of years when the competition wouldn’t feel as diluted.

There was no reason for MLS to step in and make premature alterations to an already successful system. Change would be needed eventually and everyone knew it was coming, but this particular change is arriving too quickly.

Comments

  1. I like the changes. MLS has been rolling the dice with weather, and I’m glad they’re stepping away from the table before we get a cup final in arctic (colder than Toronto, even) cold or under two feet of snow.

    An earlier finish to the season will mitigate that risk, though I wish they’d just set the cup final in a rotating mild-weather city, like the Super Bowl does. If both teams have to travel, so be it. If someone lucks into a “home” game, so be it. Better than ending your season in a blizzard.

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  2. My problem with it, is that it prolongs the off-season for more American soccer players which correlates to more idle activity from American soccer players which was one of Klinsmans issues with MLS. I honestly do not think this new playoff fiormat is in the best interests of US soccer and the USMNT.

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    • We are still trying to recover from JK ideas.

      The youth level is still in shambles from his great ideas.

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  3. 8/10 — 1996 (80%), 8/12 — 2006 (67%), 10/19 — 2014 (53%), 12/20 — 2015-2016 (60%), 12/22 — 2017 (55%), 12/23 — 2018 (52%), 14/24 -2019 (58%). This year’s percentage is actually very low for MLS historically. If they stay at 14 as it expands to 28 that actually would be about as low as it ever has been, lower than this season. Even if it goes to an easier to manage 16/28 bracket that’s 57% which would be less than 2019 will be. So this is well within the normal range for MLS and actually trending over time to lower %s. The idea that it would be rising next season relative to the other sports is really just making the normative argument we should be more stingy, out of league context/history, as when you start at the high end anyway any move to increase the postseason further will just take you more out of perceived whack. But if we’ve always been fairly generous then is the baseline ourselves or the rest of them? I think MLS over time is settling towards half which is not crazed.

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    • Look! @Imperative Voice provided actual research! Something lacking in this unusual opinion piece, uncharacteristic of the “just the facts” approach SBI usually takes.

      As @Bryan states, this article is half baked click bait. Come on SBI you can do better.

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  4. I also disagree. This is a much needed change. The current format dragged on too long. The first legs weren’t that compelling. This new format makes the regular season more important.

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    • I am in the same boat here. The dilution of the regular season by adding two teams is far outweighed by giving the higher seed a true home field advantage. There is much more importance to finishing higher up the table. Shrinking the playoff schedule between the international windows makes so much sense also. This is a very good change.

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    • As this is being done in the multi-DP era where the pendulum has swung back towards rich superteams, I agree in general this will place a premium on seeding, as once you make the conference semis right now you have equal home advantage. But I think you have to monitor whether it becomes too consistent a drumbeat of rich seeded teams at home clobbering poor low seeds. One of the positives of MLS is it is not always a tiered league big club playground like most of Europe.

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  5. i like it.

    straight forward and compact is a nice change for the fans and players

    to the teams, basically if you want to host playoff games and win the MLS Cup good luck to anyone who doesn’t finish in the top 3. but still keeps 50%+ of the league’s teams relevant into the end of the year.

    for TV, every one of these games will be a must watch elimination match over 3 consecutive weekends book-ended by national team matches.

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    • I think the compacting of the schedule within the international dates is a big positive in terms of continuity and momentum, as well as getting this back where our season is done well before NFL and CFB get to the key part of the seasons, and before NBA/NHL are really going. I think this used to be more of an October/November thing before it grew. The number of teams involved went up, but this is offset by formatting the tournament as one game rounds where the high seed gets the sole, home game.

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  6. Disagree. While 7 teams is too many, every league except baseball has too many.

    BUT It actually makes the regular season matter MORE.

    When my Sounders were not going to get a bye, it barely mattered finishing 3rd thru 6th.
    You know what mattered?….the one game knockout that could be a road game….which is exactly what this whole playoffs is. A 7 seed winning four in a row in MLS, on the road….good luck.

    Plus, the 2 game series needed to be done with, it is very dumb, having 180 min games.
    Go 1 or 3 and make winning the games matter, not road goals and did we lose by the right score to advance.

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