The U.S. men’s national team did not receive the toughest draw for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, but they didn’t receive the easiest either.
Mauricio Pochettino’s squad will take on Paraguay, Australia, and Turkey at this summer’s competition, three nations that bring something different from one another. All three of the USMNT’s opponents are currently ranked in the Top-40 of FIFA’s Rankings, which means there will be no gimme games for the Americans on home soil.
Coincidentally enough, the USMNT faced all three of their group stage opponents during different international windows last year, claiming victories over Paraguay and Australia but losing to Turkey ahead of the CONCACAF Gold Cup.
Here is a closer look at all three of the USMNT’s group stage opponents and how they are faring 42 days before the World Cup begins:
Australia
Australia lost its final three matches of its 2025 schedule but has since bounced back with a pair of home friendly victories.
The Socceroos edged Cameroon 1-0 back on March 27 before thumping Curacao 5-1 four days later in their final matches on home soil. Jordan Bos and Nestory Irankunda both registered braces during that international window while Awer Mabil and Alessandro Circati also added goals of their own.
Australia is fairly healthy heading into May, with Lewis Miller serving as the only long-term absentee (torn Achilles tendon). Miller featured against the USMNT last October and overall has earned 20 caps for his country.
Riley McGree and Fran Karacic are currently dealing with muscle injuries of their own, but are expected to be back available for when Australia announces its World Cup roster.
Tony Popovic’s squad will take on Mexico and Switzerland in their final preparation matches before facing Turkey in its World Cup opener.
Paraguay
Paraguay will be the USMNT’s opening day opponent on June 12 and could possibly be without several of its leading performers this season.
Diego Gomez remains sidelined at Brighton & Hove Albion after suffering a leg injury against Tottenham back on April 18. The 23-year-old has not retuned yet for the Seagulls and isn’t expected to feature again this season, in hopes of being fit and available for the World Cup.
Gomez joined the English Premier League side in 2024 and is enjoying his best season yet as a professional. He’s scored 10 goals this season in Fabian Huerzler’s squad, with four of them coming in a Man of the Match EFL Cup outing against Barnsley last September.
In addition, Miguel Almiron has missed Atlanta United’s last three matches in all competitions as he deals with a lingering knee issue. The 32-year-old made the move back to MLS from EPL side Newcastle United last season and has since scored six goals for the Five Stripes.
He remains a dynamic playmaker for Paraguay and would be a major loss if he is forced to miss the competition.
Gustavo Caballero is the only other injury worry for Gustavo Alfaro right now as he remains sidelined with a groin injury. The Santos loanee scored once in 12 appearances for EFL Championship side Portsmouth this season, but has not featured since April 11.
He is not expected to feature in Portsmouth’s league finale this weekend.
Paraguay split its results during the March window, downing Greece 1-0 before falling 2-1 to Morocco and at this time, has yet to reveal any pre-World Cup friendlies.
Turkey
Turkey will be the USMNT’s toughest group stage opponent.
The Turks are riding a six-match unbeaten run in all competitions after booking their World Cup spot in the European Playoffs last march. A 1-0 win over Romania followed up by a 1-0 victory over Kosovo helped Vincenzo Montella’s squad seal their spot into the summer tournament.
However, two injury worries are surrounding midfielders Arda Guler (hamstring) and Hakan Calhanoglu (thigh). Guler and Calhanoglu look set to miss the remainder of their club seasons with Real Madrid and Inter Milan respectively, potentially delaying their return to full fitness.
Guler remains one of the rising young talents in world football after totaling seven goals and 16 assists for Los Blancos this season. The 21-year-old has continued to improve in Spain after joining from Fenerbahce in 2023.
As for Calhanoglu, he last featured for Inter back on April 21 and missed the club’s recent 2-2 Serie A draw with Torino last weekend. A veteran leader at 32-years-old, Calhanoglu has scored 22 goals in 104 caps for his country and remains a top playmaker in the final third.
Both Guler and Calhanoglu are expected to be there for Turkey, but in the slim chance they are ruled out, it could certainly swing things around in Group D.
Similar to Paraguay, Turkey has not announced any pre-World Cup friendlies and look set to jump right into its group stage schedule after a multi-week training period.
Who do you think poses the biggest threat to the USMNT? Do you see the USMNT winning the group, finishing second, or not advancing to the knockout stage entirely? What is your order of finish for Group D?
Share your thoughts below.
MWR,
SBI seems to be taking Turkiye pretty lightly.
They have some important injuries but if everyone shows up they are arguably better than us and they will be scary. And they might have hefty fan support at SOFI.
As for this 7 point business, given the lowered bar for this World Cup, the USMNT will have little excuse if they don’t advance.
I think the USMNT be aiming to win the group with however many points that takes.
Why are they arguably better than us? They not. They have good players and we do as well.
Alf,
Which is why I said “arguably”.
Argument for Turkiye:
1. How about they beat us the last time we played?
2. Türkiye features Champions League stars like Arda Güler (Real Madrid) and Kenan Yıldız (Juventus) who can change a game instantly.
3. Türkiye is in “great form,”. They have won 25 of their last 30 matches. In contrast, the USMNT has struggled recently, dropping to 16th in the rankings after March 2026 defeats to Belgium and Portugal.
4. Since the 2002 World Cup Turkiye’s record stands at 4 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Türkiye is one of only 20 nations to have ever reached a World Cup semi-final (2002).
Since the 2002 World Cup the USMNT has 5 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses
One quarterfinal appearance that was lost.
5. Y’all hate Pochettino, Pulisic has been historically abysmal, Adams, Jedi and Dest will be coming in having just recently recovered from injury, Gio can’t get on the field and may not be on our roster.
Of our top line players only Weston and Flo are lighting it up. Most of the rest will be World Cup virgins and unproven, except for Ream and Turner, and everyone hates both of them.
Based on what I’ve been reading on SBI lately once the USMNT is held accountable, they will be lucky to score a goal and should get grouped.
That’s most of the argument for why Turkiye is better.
What is your argument for why the USMNT is better?
Hint:
Most major sportsbooks have the USMNT as a slight “plus-money” favorite, meaning the odds are close enough that a winner isn’t clear-cut. Recent performance dips for the USMNT and Turkiye’s strong form have led some analysts and prediction markets to shift toward favoring the Turkish side.
When in doubt, follow the money.
The US has never achieved more than 5 points in a group.
MWR,
+ The USMNT has achieved 5 points two times ( 2022 & 2010) and has never hit 7 points.
+ In 1990 & Earlier: Wins were worth only 2 points. In 1990, several teams advanced with just 2 points ( Netherlands and Uruguay) under a 24-team format that included “best third-place” teams. A new version of that format has been revived for 2026.
+ In 1994 FIFA increased win value to 3 points to encourage attacking play.
and only the top two from each group advanced. A total of 4 points became the 50/50 mark. Since 1994, only about half of the teams with 4 points have reached the knockout round.
+ Since 1994 29 teams have achieved the 5 point mark in group play and all have advanced.
+ 7 points ensures a top-two finish since only one other team in a four-team group can reach 7 points. However, it does not guarantee 1st place. If another team also has 7 points, the top spot is decided by tie-breakers like goal difference.
The bar for advancing has been lowered for the USMNT but finishing as high as possible to insure a more favorable draw for the knockouts would be wise.
Beating Turkey or at least having a better goal differential would be a really good idea.
I repeat – the US has never achieved more than 5 points in a group. Thank you for providing details to prove my point Vacqui.
My original comment was more of a response to Gary Page’s original post. I would love itfor the USMNT to advance out of the group with 7 points. But even with a favorable grouping (not great, but it could have been a lot worse), the teams are all fairly even. To say that this current USMNT squad is going to win 2 and tie 1 is pie in the sky.
That being said,
MWR,
SBI seems to be taking Turkiye pretty lightly.
They have some important injuries but if everyone shows up they are arguably better than us and they will be scary. And they might have hefty fan support at SOFI.
As for this 7 point business, given the lowered bar for this World Cup, the USMNT will have little excuse if they don’t advance.
I think the USMNT be aiming to win the group with however many points that takes.
Well, I think we can and should get 7 points which would at least tie for the top of the group. I am assuming a draw with Turkey and a good chance they win their other two games which would leave us both with 7 points.