Photo by ISIphotos.com
In case you haven't heard by now, CONCACAF is preparing to change its World Cup qualifying format dramatically, doing away with the old Hexagonal final qualifying round in favor of a two-group final round that gives eight teams a chance to battle for the three (or four) automatic World Cup berths the region receives.
So why will you hate it?
Under the new format, the final eight teams in CONCACAF qualifying will be placed in two four-team groups, with the winner of each group qualifying automatically and the two second-place teams playing off for the third automatic qualifying spot.
So why will you hate it?
No USA-Mexico. No trip to Azteca for the United States and no visit to frigid Crew Stadium for 'El Tri'.
Sound crazy? Too bad it's happening.
FIFA is expected to ratify the changes, which will go into effect for the 2014 World Cup qualifying cycle. U.S. Soccer president Sunil Gulati acknowledged on Tuesday that the changes are likely to go through, and his only remark about the lost USA-Mexico qualifiers was to make clear the two rivals would still find ways to play each other.
No, it won't be the same. Not even close.
The United States and Mexico could still meet in the Gold Cup, and in friendlies, but chances are they would be kept in seperate qualifying groups under the new CONCACAF format, meaning no more of the heated qualifiers that both side's fans spend years looking forward to.
So why is CONCACAF making these changes? It's making them to give more of the region's smaller teams a chance to play against the big boys. The new system will consist of three group stages (eight groups of four, then four groups of four, then a final two groups of four), up from the current system's two group stages. It will mean 32 teams will have a chance to play in a group stage, instead of the 16 that used to play in group stages. It also means eight teams have that chance to survive the final round, up from the six that have made up the Hexagonal in the past.
The changes make sense if you're from a smaller country, but for Mexico and the United States it means more games against smaller nations and likely means the elimination of the big-money qualifiers against each other. If CONCACAF sticks to a stringent seeding process, and you have to believe the region will do its best to keep Mexico and the United States away from each other, then the days of Americans making the trip to Mexico City and Mexicans braving the cold in Ohio are over.
The likely tradeoff for the region's powers is that there is less of a chance of facing an early-round group of death (which is what we saw when Mexico, Honduras, Canada and Jamaica wound up in the same second-round group in 2008). There is some added danger in that a top power getting off to a slow start in the final group could find itself forced into a playoff for a World Cup place. When you consider how slowly Mexico started in the last Hexagonal qualifying cycle it isn't out of the realm of possibility.
The bright side? If there is one it's that there will be more early-round group matches to play and potentially give experience to younger players. Chances are there will be a few cupcakes in the first group stage where Bob Bradley can give a look to some inexperienced players. It also means more qualifying matches, which could conceivably help the FIFA rankings of CONCACAF's powers.
Is that worth the tradeoff of losing USA-Mexico qualifiers? Not really, but it's the system we're facing.
What do you think of this development? Hate the changes, or are you liking the idea of three group stages?
Share your thoughts below.
I am going to miss those games against Mexico! I loved hating to play against those guys. I know that’s oxymoronic but those games really got your heart pumping. Very, very disappointing!
In addition to getting small nations more competitive matches, this also gives some of them more money. St. Lucia could run its confederation for 4 years off the money it would make selling tv rights for it’s home qualifier against Mexico.
Rory just digitally owned you, ballerontheblock.
I agree
Ha. What.a.joke.
Both consider the other the main rival. Any USA fan or Mexico fan who says otherwise is full of manure
Granted…but it will allow fringe teams with tons of home based talent to get better like Panama, Surinam and Guyana… these teams are right on the cusp and more meaningful internationals means overall improvement..
Thanks for being positive about this Tony. I think people are freaking out a little bit too much about this…..
A qualifier counts for more in the FIFA rankings, so the lower teams will have a chance to increase their ranking. Then when USA, Mexico, Costa Rica, etc. play these now “higher” ranked teams, then concieveably their ranking will increase as well.
Yes, it’s kind of backwards.
As a fan of both the Trinidad and Jamaica NTs in addition to the USMNT I’ll say this has mild positives and negatives. The positives are that it’s highly unlikely the US will ever so much as struggle to make another WC. Also, for the smaller nations, it provides for more games against each other and the big boys. This brings more money, sustained interest during qualifications and greater opportunity to affect their FIFA ranking. I also have to say, as a fan of the game in general, more soccer is always better. (Tho I realize I’m in the minority when I say I’d watch Aruba v Dominican Republic. Haha) So sure, no US v Mexico, but we may find that this new system really helps the other nations progress, creating new rivalries and challenging the US in new ways.
So…how can Mexico and the US apply to become members of CONMEMBOL?
No, it should actually improve the chances of being seeded. Because the FIFA ranking system sets a minimum value on the “strength of opposition” component of the rankings, a qualifier win over a minnow like Aruba is worth 330 points. While that won’t help the US much, the extra wins should move countries like T&T, Jamaica, El Salvador, Panama, and Canada into the 50-70 range. A win and loss to Mexico is worth about the same as a win and draw (like the US did versus El Salvador) to one of these 50-70 ranked teams. The US going win-win against a 50-70 ranked team (like they did against T&T) is worth about 50% more points than a win and loss to Mexico. If FIFA continues to use its rankings to determine the seeds, both the US and Mexico stand a better chance of getting seeded under the new format.
I guess you’re right, since the US keeps winning the hexagonal then Mexico should consider Honduras and Costa Rica as their rivals for the 2nd place spot.
Ives, try to use your connections/voice to recommend a slight tweak to the proposed changes. The idea of getting mid-level nations more games is fine and good. However, they could do this and still keep the Hex.
Its simple. Once the format gets down to four groups of four, the four group winners go to the Hex and the four runners-up play a home and home playoff against another nation to determine the final two spots. This way Mex/USA should both be able to play each other AND mid-level nations get more competitive games.
Push for it Ives!
Indeed. Whatever will we do without Barbados getting their fair share of matches. /gag
Mexico does not consider USA as a rival.
That’d sure make the rivalry interesting. A playoff between us and them to determine an automatic qualifying spot for the World Cup. I hope it doesn’t come to that.
We wont miss you either EA!
I wish I could take credit for it but I can’t. Stumbled on it around the start of the MLS season. All credit to “cowtown” for its creation.
Again, worst idea ever. Nearly everyone has made good points about why this is bad. Even the most optimistic are leaning towards this being more bad than good.
Seriously, wtf are they thinking?
The worst part about this is that Sunil Gulati doesn’t seem to be upset about this at all. Why not at least acknowledge that this isn’t good for US Soccer?
“We” didnt go do anything, it was Concacaf that is messin this up, not USSF
I guess. But I don’t see how that helps USA or MEX improve their FIFA ranking.
Love the link
Wehre did you get no Mexico Vs USA from this article? It does net mentrion any “seeding” tha twould put them in the opposite group, it’s possible that they’ll play each other.
From the article here is written you make it seems and if they’l lbe automatically separated inthe last round of qualifying. You think FIFA will let them do that? that basically guarentees the US and Mexico quailification, by winning their groups, while making it nearly impossible for the smaller teams to win the grp.
My take is that there will be a seedless draw and that would be the onlt way to keep it fair for all.
We’ll beat Mexico either way.
and our first round would be:
USA, Haiti, Grenada, Aruba..
Can’t wait until Robbie Findley scores 4 against St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
But, for the USA it will be the same amount of games. Only countries like Barbados, St. Kitts, and the Virgin Islands will play more games.
this pretty much sucks.
i don’t see how this makes any $$ which is why i am suprised CONCACAF actually did it..
Playing in hostile evironments like El Salvador, Honduras and Costa Rica are ultimately what prepared the U.S for its run in the world cup. We may only get one trip per round to one of these central American nations now, and more than likely it will not mean as much.
deserve to qualify, will earn their way there.
Sorry about that!
More games in total, not for any one team, I guess.
Here are the CONCACAF teams that are ranked from 9-16 in the FIFA rankings:
Canada
Cuba
Guatemala
Guyana
Suriname
Barbados
Antigua and Barbuda
Haiti
Here are the teams ranked 17-24:
Grenada
St Kitts and Nevis
Bermuda
St. Vincent and the Grendines
Nicaragua
Netherlands Antilles
Puerto Rico
Cayman Islands
And here are the teams ranked 25-32:
Bahamas
Dominica
Belize
Turks and Caicos Islands
Dominican Republic
St. Lucia
British Virgin Islands
Aruba
So presumably you could expect to have the US in a first round group with one team from each of these pools. Same for Mexico, Honduras, Costa Rica, etc.
Canada and Guatemala notwithstanding…What a complete waste of time. I hope US, Mexico and whoever else is up to it wins a few games 10-0 or more to illustrate the idiocy of this system.
With this format and Bradley retained as coach I’m convinced the US will be chasing one of the playoff spots. Probably the 4th place spot vs. a CONMEBOL squad. Well it was a fun 20 year run at the World Cup anyways. 1990-2010, I enjoyed it.
I’m mot a fan of it, but I guess the teams that deserve to earn their way there. If you top one of the two groups, or beat the runner up in your opposite group, you have a fair chance to qualify. Although, it would suck not being able to play our friendly rivals Mexico.
nice!
Quit watching. That’s my advice. Your life will be better.
The bandwagon makes all stops. Please be sure to wait until it’s no longer in motion to get up from your seat. See ya.
I think that the best time to have the USA and Mexico join CONMEBOL would be the cycle where the USA gets the WC. Move 2 spots to the CONMEBOL and that pretty much gives them 7 spots. Dont tell me that the USA couldn’t at least place 6th or 7th in qualifying. the USA would automatically quallify the first cycle because they are the host nation which would take away any failure possibility. the USA has to grow by the time of the 2022-26 WC.
Playing devil’s advocate, I would imagine this should help the rest of CONCACAF catch up. While it’s terrible to lose the Mexico game as a qualifier, eventually we’ll hopefully get more quality matches elsewhere and continue to grow.
Just as an aside: can you imagine how intense a playoff for the third spot would be if both Mexico and the US finished second in their groups?
wow i cannot read, sorry.
i fart in my own general direction
You can stop supporting the team, if you’d like. We won’t miss you.
That picture makes me feel that Landon (and possibly Blanco) should make a run at dancing with the stars.
If they were to use the current FIFA ratings and evenly divy up and assume the higher rankings advance the teams the US’ groups would be:
Final Round:
USA, Honduras, T+T, El Salvador (or Panama)
Second to Last Round:
USA, Panama, Canada, Haiti
any US team that finished below Honduras and T+T or ELS does not belong in the WC.. if they were below Honduras then a playoff with CRC or Jamaica should not be too much to ask!
personally i think this is a lot easier than the Hex.. but it means a lot less quality matches.
Wow…making CONCACAF less competitive is a horrendous decision…let’s face it, this still is a Mickey Mouse conference as the top 2 teams from the region can’t get past the round of 16 in the World Cup.
What a joke…
I am buoyed by a greater chance of getting a road qualifier in the People’s Republic of Canadia.
Your Cup idea is useless. The fact is World Cup qualifiers have a special meaning, which you can’t create with a home and away “Cup”. Plus, the countries do take the Gold Cup seriously. Every four years (2007, 2011, 2015…) when it determines the qualifier for the Confederations Cup.
Jack Warner and CONCACAF ceased to amaze me a long time ago….when its all said and done Mexico and the USA will qualify anyway….but the fan base gets hosed again….
maybe asia?
Easy fix: Top two finishing teams in the two final groups of four play a winner takes all top seed (and likely WC seed) in qualification. Keeps the probability of a meaningful US-Mexico game alive.