Liga MX just got hit with some bad news.
Eight unidentified players from Santos Laguna tested positive for COVID-19 on Wednesday, and there is a chance that number could raise. The Mexican club had 48 people get examined this week ahead of a potential return to training, but results have come back for only 22 of them thus far.
“Eight players received positive results for COVID-19,” read a statement from Liga MX on Wednesday evening. “However, they are asymptomatic.”
Liga MX has been weighing whether to resume or cancel the current Clausura campaign, even considering playing games in one city. A final decision was expected to be made in the coming days.
Ten matchdays had been played in the current season prior to the suspension of play in March because of the coronavirus outbreak. Santos Laguna sit in third place right now, five points off leaders Cruz Azul with seven rounds of games left to play.
I am very suspicious of the accuracy of the tests. 100% of the 8 being asymptomatic is a high fraction. (One test apparently gives a 15% positive rate for blood from 2017 which was clearly pre-COVID-19. Eight out of 22 is closer to 30% than 15%, but statistics with numbers less than 100 give pretty variable results. )
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I do not doubt the seriousness of the disease or want to minimize what the results might portend, but the various tests out there have accuracies all over the map. Right now I would only truly trust the test S. Korea is using, they have used it in “real-life situations” with tracing and isolation to reduce the infection and death rate to close to zero. I have no idea how one would go about getting the S.Korea test, but Liga Mex could certainly afford importing the tests for its players.
(1) one of the insidious things about the disease is superspreading, people who don’t yet feel sick but get like 20 people sick. so when i hear asymptomatic i am like people aren’t necessarily thinking about the health implications for everyone around them. (2) let’s be real, testing used most appropriately is for personal diagnosis and disease tracking. am i sick? and, can we round up you and the others for public health measures. this is instead businesses trying to justify soccer practices right when a mexican outbreak is just happening. like us 2 months ago. the idea is to test to justify the decision. the tests are not playing along — they are just pointing out why it’s bad idea. (3) as i understand it the “are you sick now” swab tests are not the issue, it’s the “used to be sick” antibody tests. i am a little concerned that a question here or there is becoming general scientific skepticism, because that is often used for stupid politics. throw out the science and common sense is mexico doesn’t need to be playing soccer right when the disease is breaking out there.
There are a very large number of test varieties and protocols being used. Many give false positives in the 5 to 15% range and that IS for testing of the active virus. As you point out the antibody tests have their own problems.
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The implication of false positives from the active virus tests is that people who do not have the virus may be unnecessarily isolated. The implication of false positive from the antibody test is that people will think they now have some immunity when they do not.
they are “asymptomatic” is good news in terms of personal health, but as a risk concern is huge. you can have apparently healthy players getting each other, staff, coaches, employees, broadcast sick. this is why testing is big. but if you do the testing and turn up positives your league has to be run like it’s turning up positive tests. (and we’re also ignoring that the youngest teenage players might be at risk of this immune system syndrome. there is a pretence this thing is a harmless nursing home disease. i watched an 18 year old wearing inter gear get put on a vent on a documentary. he survived but looked like heck in the process. a chunk of this country is in denial.)