The 2023 Leagues Cup Final will feature two MLS Eastern Conference teams.
Nashville SC blanked Liga MX opponents Monterrey 2-0 on Tuesday at Geodis Park to reach their first tournament final in club history. Second-half goals from Sam Surridge and Fafa Picault helped Gary Smith’s squad set up a finals showdown with Lionel Messi and Inter Miami.
Nashville SC thought it had an early opening goal through Hany Mukhtar’s curling finish, but VAR wiped away the goal due to Mukhtar coming onsides from an offsides position.
Monterrey struck the crossbar in the 28th minute as Erick Aguirre came closest for the Liga MX visitors in the first half.
Both Picault and Mukhtar were denied scoring opportunities as the first half ended goal-less.
Nashville SC’s continued pressure eventually paid off though in the 67th minute as Mukhtar set up Sam Surridge for the opening goal. Surridge’s right-footed shot nestled into the bottom-right corner to boost the hosts in front 1-0.
Jordi Cotrizo’s long-range shot in the 85th minute was denied by a diving Elliot Panicco before Nashville SC iced its semifinal victory.
Surridge’s headed pass allowed Picault to slot home Nashville SC’s insurance goal, wrapping up a 2-0 result. Surridge played a pass to Picault before the veteran winger danced his way into the box and drilled home a left-footed shot.
Panicco finished the match with a three-save clean sheet as Nashville SC moved on to Saturday’s Leagues Cup final.
The winner will not only lift the Leagues Cup trophy, but also clinch a berth into the expanded 2024 Concacaf Champions Cup.
I thought Monterrey got unbelievably lucky against LAFC, who despite missing Carlos Vela were still up 2-0 on the Mexican side and were trying to bang in that third goal before halftime. Somehow LAFC missed 2-3 wide-open sitters I genuinely do not know how they missed, and that would have been ball game right there. But Monterrey got a goal off a PK awarded for an incredibly soft VAR review, then snuck in another on a corner, then pulled off a goalazo I still can’t believe to win the game. With Vela LAFC almost certainly would have won going away.
Like I said, though, MLS moved past Liga MX in terms of buying power this past year…and with the Messi spending spree, MLS’s yearly payrolls have spiked all the way to $453 million (for 29 teams), while Liga MX’s total payroll is now a scant third of that, falling all the way to $155 million (for 18 teams) in the ’23-24 seasons, down from an all-time (pre-COVID) high combined payroll of $246 million for the league in 2018-2019. Mexico’s spending has never really recovered from COVID.
So right now, MLS teams average $15.6 million per team. Liga MX’s has tumbled all the way down to $8.6 million per club.
A handful of Mexican teams – notably Toluca, Atlas, and especially Querataro – actually overachieved relative to payroll (Toluca and Atlas would both be last in MLS in spending), and Querataro is one of the poorest teams in Liga MX with a total payroll in ’23-’24 of just $5,400, or about a third that of the average MLS side. You’d expect Tigres and Monterrey to do well and they did – Monterrey’s ahead of any MLS team except Miami at $22.3 million, and UANL is #4 behind just those two and Toronto FC at $21.2 million. But aside from those two sides and Club America, who are by far the richest clubs in Mexico, it looks increasingly unlikely that Mexican teams will be able to compete against MLS teams in even the near future. They’re getting out of their weight class and it’s getting worse every year.
MLS is paying more, but from the Leagues Cup it is not obvious they are performing better. Across all the head-to-head games of LigaMX vs MLS, the results were
MLS 17 wins, LigaMx 17 wins 12 ties with MLS prevailing on PKs in 7
That despite all the games were away games for LigaMX teams.
Of course money can bring in better players and a factor of 2 in spending should tip the quality on the field strongly in MLS’s favor.
That’s the thing, though. We’re getting there in a hurry. Tigres and UANL have kept up their spending and are $20+ million teams. Club America is a $15 million club.
After that it drops all the way down to Chivas, who have an $8.8 million total payroll. Which would be second-to-last in MLS; they narrowly edge out the newbies in St. Louis, who spend just $8.7 million.
Soccernomics isn’t definitive destiny, certainly, but in broad strokes it does give a fair-to-decent snapshot. Soccernomics said the final should have been Miami versus Monterrey and it nearly was.
Sorry, meant Tigres and Monterrey. Apologies.